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High Speed Rail in the USA?

husky drvr

Platinum Level Sponsor
Nick, some informative posting, but essentially, your dodging my question: Who do you think should be the central operative and financial figure behind a modern high speed line?

Mike, I don't know. A quick search uncovered this info from a UP quarterly report.

Fuel coast down 47% from first quarter of 1008 to an average of $1.51 per gallon.
Used $957 million of fuel in 1st qtr of 2008.
Used $386 million of fuel in 1st qtr of 2009.

I'll let the mathematically inclined do the honors, especially for 2008 which is more representative of usage, freight is way down.

Bill

Bill,

If my math is correct (BIG if), then UP's avg for the entire system is about 54.84 gallons per sec (1st qtr 2008). YMMV Do you have any idea on how many locomotive units are in service?
 

wipeout

Donation Time
add to this equation they claim to move 1 ton, 420 miles, on one gallon of fuel. At 40 miles per hour that is 144,000 secs or 7,896,960 gallons. Just how much can a freight train hold? HAAHAHAHAHA

I believe something is skewed in my calculations...I think perhaps we'll need to divide the amount of trains Union Pacific is running in order to better utilize that information being used.

CSX figures that one Train can carry 2000 lbs 420 miles on one gallon of fuel (diesel I presume). Forget the weight and lets just assume that 40 miles per hour is the start to finish average speed... that would be 10.5 hours of travel to get that ton of freight moved...10.5 hours is 37,800 secs or (its not getting any better) 2,072,952 gals used by the formula below.

Hmmm....so, if they only had one train...I could ship an alpine 870,639,840 miles.

How many Locomotives do they have? I couldnt find a statistic for it. I found reference to CSXT Locomotive Fleet and they say that they have 3917 Locomotives. Which are running at any given time?

I did find out that its suppose to take 15 hp per ton of freight on a train carrying 100 cars or 1500 hp.

All this silliness leads me to one conclusion....it doesnt really matter when, in the last 100 days, the criminals in DC have allocated nearly 9,000,000,000 dollars in debt. Thats a stack of $1000 bills 567 miles high. That's a $55,000 added tax burden on the citizens this year alone...oh, and yes, that is on top of what you already owe.

We don't have the money to even entertain the notion of paying for "our future". All that money is spent capturing our freedoms and locking them up for the next group of criminals to mess with.

You all are staring at the trees but you don't see the forest.

(pretty cool hijack huh? :D )
 

mikephillips

Donation Time
As total fleet usage I'm not sure can buy a 43 gallons per second usage. A modern engine carries about 3500 gallons of fuel, more or less depends on the type and size of the engine. And lets say the UP is about equilent to the CSX and has about 3500 engines. So they carry about 12.25 million gallons if all full. So, 12.25/43 equals about 285,000 seconds, 4748 hours and 198 days total running timesplit between 3500 units. Even if half the units aren't running at any particular time that's still only about 3 hours running time before the tank is empty. Perhaps they stop for fule more often than I think they would, but it just doesn't add up right for me unless they have several times the number of engines running and idle.
 

SumBeans

Donation Time
Government Infrastructure

It is very doubtful that private money will be able to implement a high Speed rail line, but most likely it would be better managed by private individuals with a "For Profit" approach.
Our OhBama president has allocated funds for new innovative technologies and the group of Engineers in Arizona are certainly trying to get some of the good $tuff. Seeing as a high Speed rail line would be firmly planted on American soil and not transported out of the country, it should be considered as Government infrastructure.
Wipeout: I saved a quote from a University level Economics manul that was printed some thirty years ago, unfortunately the publisher's name is not accessible right now but I would like to share it with you word for word. The book had over a thousand pages of over-analysed graphs and charts that were mind-boggling, but these words were worth keeping;
""" EVERYONE WORRIES ABOUT THE NATIONAL DEBT-EXCEPT ECONOMISTS. MOST PEOPLE THINK THAT THE NATIONAL DEBT WILL HAVE TO BE "RE-PAID" AT SOME TIME OR ANOTHER. IT WON'T. MOST PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THE NATIONAL DEBT IS A BURDEN TO FUTURE GENERATIONS. IT ISN'T. THERE IS NO ECONOMIC LIMIT TO THE SIZE OF THE NATIONAL DEBT, AND A RISING DEBT CAN BRING IMPORTANT BENEFITS""":confused:
I had a hard time believing that statement for many years, but when you look at the way money has been spent it the last 40 years, the statement is believeable. Read that statement again and save it on your office wall. A little education is good, sometimes people's thoughts won't change. Wipeout, you seem Very Obsessed with the government's actions, when your own economics is all that counts. Like saving money to own a simple sunbeam.
Sometimes we have accept what we learn is school and time will supply us with the answers, sometimes through real life experiences, mostly with an open mind.
Some people think the moon is made of Blue Cheese, but I happen to think it is made of Brie. What do you think?:p
I believe that the operating costs for freight have come down through the advancement of Engineering, planning and the globalisation of shipping containers. GE has increased power and lowered fuel consumption as a continuous mandate over the years with their Locomotives, the stats seem to show a step in the right direction.:D
 

Nickodell

Donation Time
That opinion about the National Debt held true when it was around 4% of the Gross National Product (as under GW Bush). It's not so much the size of the debt as the ratio of it to the GNP. Like your mortgage, where banks in the Good Old Days (before "everyone must have a house!" liberal crap that got us into this trouble) limited the amount you could borrow to a percentage of your income, previous administrations kept it to 3% to 4%.

What we are looking at now is more like 15% for the future. And more important than the total is the interest that we must pay each year on that debt, which looks to dwarf every other expenditure - Soc. Sec., military, Medicare, etc. This is the awful hole the Democrats are digging for us, our children and grandchildren.
 

wipeout

Donation Time
and I make it a point not to point blame at who is doing what...because...quite honestly, they are all the same. Dems / Reps , they want to secure power and principles and ideology is which ever the popular opinion can be manipulated to keep them in power.

Nick is right about the % of debt to the ability of the people to pay it off. And in this case...our ENEMIES hold our debt. You want to see an economical cataclysm? Let China call in it's markers and push for another world wide currency. You'll think "saving up for an Alpine"...you'll be pushing a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread. The govs cant print the paper fast enough to cover the hand outs they've promiced.

That means, when it all catches up to us, and it will, it will be hyper-inflation on top of world wide depression.

I continue to take care of my own and those around me. I just seek to enlighten those that think that this present downturn is a mere changing of the guard. Some think, those that are drinking the kool-aid, that what is being done is going to help. It's not. History proves it, we ignore it. And, if you keep your eyes open, you'll see those that once believed in the hand outs are not saying it's having the opposite effect.

In fact, and overlook the hypocracy of this if you want, but the financial man just recently appointed just said that the stimulus package will not work until the economy starts turning around. Say what? They told us that unless they had it, we were all doomed. Fancy that. Lying again. So I ask, what is their ultimate goal? I don't think they want to destroy the economy. But I do think they want to grow government. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Please join me in fighting this. We need to demand accountability for their actions. Small government and the freedom to live according to our pursuits.

'Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it' - Ronald Reagan
 

SumBeans

Donation Time
Magnetic Levitation

Instead of following old technology, ie diesel and electric, I can only hope if BIG BIG money is spent on a high speed train, that Magnetic Levitation is chosen. There was a very interesting show on Discovery channel a few months back, and they have had a successful development program showcasing a Fricton-Less mode of travel in Europe. People are allowed to ride the prototype for free and have been quite happy with it. MagLev will employ many skilled people in the development stages through to the first paid for trip.:D:D
Nick, Did you view the interview Sunday Night with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on the Tele? Another well educated man, dealing with America's money. What I posted was not an opinion, it Is actually an exept from an educational program taught to people in the money world. You can create statistics based on your opinions, but that information was provided by an Economist. Not a bricklayers nor a pilots opinion but an Economist. There is alot that goes on in the money world that you can only speculate on.
Not wanting to change the subject, just share some of my "paid for" education.:D
Back to the High Speed Train discussion, Bill asked a question he thought you were avoiding. :rolleyes:
 

Bill Blue

Platinum Level Sponsor
Found this on Wikipedia:
As of January 1, 2008, UP has 8,595 locomotives on its active roster.

Bill
 

wipeout

Donation Time
I can post threads from "Economists" ad infinitum that debunk ALL you assume to except. Don't let your limited viewpoint based on a synopsis of an one economists book that taught other economists to teach economy. For a very long time Greenspan was the economic god, and it was his approach to the Market that helped get us to where we're at.

And this Bricklayer knows a bit more about things than plumb and level. :D

And...I'm not saying we should NOT build for the future...let me repeat the overlooked obvious...WE DON"T HAVE THE MONEY...thats YOUR money , MY money, the PILOTS money.....that they take from us to do deals to secure their longevity in a position of power.

How much more are you willing to give them? I work four and a half months for them...and they want more. What is fair? Six months to pay taxes and the other is mine? Is that not enough? How about this, because of the tax liabilty, I'll work, my children will work and their children will work to pay off the present gov bill. Unless, of course, we get back to small gov and less taxes.

As for HSR (read Alpine)...fine...when we have the monies (car fund) we'll build it. OR....instead...the Gov (Me) can allocate more money (Car Loan) that they (me) can't pay back unless they make (steal from my kids college fund) more money. Which is being done on a 24 hour basis as it is.

And thats enough of that. ;)
 

Sownman

Donation Time
The loons in California voted for a high speed rail connecting LA and San Fran
just before the recession started. Phase one is supposed to cost $9 billion. Total projected cost is $45 billion. As far as I can remember no such project has ever come in for anywhere near projected cost it will probably run over, maybe way over. But lets look at some assumptions....

1) Assume it comes in on budget of $45,000,000,000.
2) Assume 15,000,000 people in LA and San Fran areas will make use of it.

We currently have a hundred or so flights a day from LA to San Fran that make the trip in a bit over an hour for about $150 round trip.

The high speed rail is expected to take about 2.7 hours. and operate
1 or 2 trains a day. We have no idea what the train fare will be.

For the train construction expenditure of $45 billion with plane tickets at $150 you could purchase 20 round trip tickets for each of the 15,000,000 potential users, and mail them out. More than a lifetime supply for most people and they could make the trip in less than half the time of the rail. BTW the rail line also parallels the San Andreas fault, source of large and common earthquakes which would derail a 170MPH train as well as damaging the track. Airplanes have no such earthquake concerns. We still plan on going forward with this project despite the recession and the real potential of a state bankruptcy.

What a great state
Steve R
 

wipeout

Donation Time
ah...dont sweat it brother...Barney Franks is going to bond your debt...but I hear that all economists say debt is a good thing and nothing to worry about...:D
 

Sownman

Donation Time
ah...dont sweat it brother...Barney Franks is going to bond your debt...but I hear that all economists say debt is a good thing and nothing to worry about...:D

You know it. Theres not a day goes by that I don't kick myself for never doing a cash out refinance. Thank God my wife uses our credit cards. Not a lot of debt but enough that I get a real sense that I'm getting ahead.

Steve R
 

Nickodell

Donation Time
Nick, Did you view the interview Sunday Night with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve on the Tele? Another well educated man, dealing with America's money. What I posted was not an opinion, it Is actually an exept from an educational program taught to people in the money world. You can create statistics based on your opinions, but that information was provided by an Economist. Not a bricklayers nor a pilots opinion but an Economist. Back to the High Speed Train discussion, Bill asked a question he thought you were avoiding. :rolleyes:

Economics is called "The Dismal Science" for a good reason. Unlike other sciences, like physics, chemistry or mathematics, which are based on immutable laws (e.g. Newton's Laws of Motion), economics is essentially the "science" of inspired guesswork, and if you talk to enough economists you get different answers to the same questions - what causes inflation? Does "trickle-down" work? Tight money? Do boom and bust occur naturally, like the tides, or not?

Economics on the macro scale is akin to crystal-gazing. Look at the predictions of some of the most famous economists: John Maynard Keynes, Adam Smith, Malthus (according to Malthus we should all be eating rocks by now as world population, he predicted, would outstrip world food production by the 1970s). So the pronouncements by economists are themselves opinions. If they could really predict the future of the country's economy, they'd be billionaires.

And my answer to Bill is that if you want cheap, fast rail travel it has to be government run, with billions of dollars poured into it (someone worked out a few years ago that the subsidies put into Amtrack could be used to give every passenger a new car every four years). If you want it to be privately run, a in Britain, you pay the economic rate for a ticket - say $1,200 for Chicago to L.A. - and look forward to more fatal wrecks.
 

SumBeans

Donation Time
American Jobs

The advantage to the economy when billion$ of dollars is spent on rail, roads and cities do not return profits immediately but employ the willing and able. The California project is like many others, with risk. Building it parallel to the San Andreas Fault would definitely sound like a crazy concept. For those that are intimidated by forward thinking and solving Engineering problems, you should stay in the stone age and continue to burn your coal.:p
For those that have invested their time and money in education those challenges are what the American dream is really about. The number$ are shots in the dark, how can man properly geusstimate the true costs on something that has not been done before? Was there a cost over-run on the Hoover Dam builty during the depression? Probably. Government money built that program and employed alot of Americans in the process. Same can be said about the Golden Gate Bridge, American inginuity built that BEAUTY as the Government put their balls on the table where others would of stayed at home complaining about a concept they could not understand.
I would like to believe that a good portion of the California High Speed line monies have fed alot of Skilled Americans. Innovation is the key to America, positive forward thinking:D. Obviously they have employed some leading edge Engineers who are willing to take on a challenge, through to metal workers, electricians and alot of lower skilled labourers in masonary trades also but it still results in employment. Without doubt some under-handed greasing has taken place in some Seedy Strip clubs with Arnold's money but, but, but. What the Hey?
Wipeout: How do you think the Millions of Miles of Freeways, Highways and BUYways were built on this Continent? Definitely not developed by individuals who sit around and preach doom and gloom. They were, I am geussing paid for by your government, and with a defecit no doubt. But please correct me again, as I am not the type to sit around moaning and you have apparently become an expert with many more years of knowlege in this subject. Has the government ruined your life? Maybe you were you rai$ed with more than you have now? Silver Spooned? I have employed many people over the years, and some of my financial mistakes were associating myself with Negative Individuals. Individuals like you make it hard for others around you to be productive. You Poison the Pond and nothing gets done other than gripeing. I may Quote: " The time to Implement things is when the old things have lost their usefullness" That is Freaken hillarious! Much like my sister putting oil in her Chevy after she blew it up!:D Okay boys and Girls, back to High Speed trains agian.
I would hope that IF the Arizona Solar Rail project eventually gets going they would insist and Mandate that the American Engineers use American General Electric technology exclusively and stay away from the global giants like Siemens, Bosch and Mitsubishi. The economic BENEFITS OF THE DEFECIT are intended for projects like this to employ Americans and get them working. There is a reason people educate themselves and these ideas that need to be applied are what will make America stronger and world leaders again. What else would the youth of tomorrow have to look forward to:confused:
 

wipeout

Donation Time
For those that have invested their time and money in education those challenges are what the American dream is really about. The number$ are shots in the dark, how can man properly geusstimate the true costs on something that has not been done before? Was there a cost over-run on the Hoover Dam builty during the depression? Probably. Government money built that program and employed alot of Americans in the process. Same can be said about the Golden Gate Bridge, American inginuity built that BEAUTY as the Government put their balls on the table where others would of stayed at home complaining about a concept they could not understand.

Overlooking the elitest snobery of the statement, you forget that America was a strong economical force. Over regulation and enviromental nut jobs were not in the way of such "inginuity". Infrastructure was needed to even meet the basic growth and it was incumbent upon the nation to continue in its industrial and widespread growth.

But please correct me again, as I am not the type to sit around moaning and you have apparently become an expert with many more years of knowlege in this subject. Has the government ruined your life? Maybe you were you rai$ed with more than you have now? Silver Spooned? I have employed many people over the years, and some of my financial mistakes were associating myself with Negative Individuals. Individuals like you make it hard for others around you to be productive. You Poison the Pond and nothing gets done other than gripeing. I may Quote: " The time to Implement things is when the old things have lost their usefullness" That is Freaken hillarious!

Excuse me? Who the hell are you exactly? I tell you who you are. You're just like the other "its the intent of our thinking and not the outcome of our actions" people that proclaim prosperity in the face of calamity. Just think positive and that bear in the tent will go away. You're the same bunch of people that poured countless billions into the war on poverty and made it worse. You're the same bunch that loves centralized government, where all the "enlightened" people can meet and do things to those poor ignorant masses that just don't "get it".

It's indiviuals like me, small business, that make up the lion's share of this countries viability. It's worried business men like me that are on the front lines having to reinvent themselves to make sure their employees have a job to keep groceries on the table. I'm on the frontlines, not sitting back in a retired nirvana nodding my head at the wonders of man's future glory. I've earned the right the gripe.

You refuse to see the reality of the simple notion that " We can't pay for it now " . Can't bother you with the facts. "Not now Mr. Churchhill, Hitler won't invade Poland. He promiced."

Let me say it again....HSR is a wonderful idea. Going to Mars is a wonderful idea. The space station is a monumental feat. All these things are going to come to a screaching halt if we do not do something now. You call it doom and gloom. Yeah, well...the british are coming...call it what you will but you're going to have to face it. Better sooner than later.

Reality's a bitch, then you cry. It must be hard to whistle your favorite show tune with your head buried in the sand. But I'm sure with the proper positive mental outlook you'll make it work. :D

Im through slinging mud honey bunny. HSR is wonderful. Can't wait till we get it. I'm sure just starting it will solve all the economic woes coming our way. Let's do it. What's a few pultry billions in the whole scheme of things? You're right. Carry on men, no need to worry, just up the beach and over the hill to glory and victory. :p

I'm done with slinging mud now.
 

Bill Blue

Platinum Level Sponsor
For the record, Hoover dam was completed without cost overrun and two years ahead of schedule. The Golden gate was constructed at less than bonded cost. It can be done.

I would like to relate a personal story that I think is relevant to the discussion.

My Freshman chemistry prof at Purdue was a crusty old fart. His two favorite fraternities were "I Eta Beta" and "I Felta Thi". He was also known to tell freshmen co-eds to "Cross their legs and close the gates of Hell." He spent a lot of time shoveling cow manure. He certainly was no effete liberal. His name was Doc Hunt and is know by almost any Purdue grad of the era.

He spent a lot of time in his lectures expounding on the economics of chemistry and the importance of chemistry in our industrial structure. A story I remember particularly well was about the American steel industry. General McAarthur had insisted that Japan adopt the new oxygen furnace when it rebuilt its steel industry. The American industry had decided to stand pat with the open hearth process. It was after all, tried and true, had defeated the Nazis and converting to the Oxygen process would be an enormous cost. However, open hearth is an expensive way to produce steel. At the moment, Japan could lay a ton of steel on the ground in Gary Indiana cheaper than US Steel. He predicted the US steel industry was in for a tough time simply because of the lack of foresight and the cost to convert. The window of time to convert and remain competitive had closed. That was the spring of 1969.

There are times when when you have to speak of investment, not cost.

Bill
 

Bill Blue

Platinum Level Sponsor
As a sort of addendum to my previous post, what if we re-frame the question we are asking. I suppose the steel execs were deciding if it was economical to mortgage the companies future in order to cut production costs X%. What if they posed question like this. "Do we mortgage the company or declare bankruptcy?" History shows us that was the true question.

What is the correct question in California. Is it "Do we spend X Billions so people can choose between the train, or $150 to fly?" Or, "Do we spend X Billions of dollars so people do not have to choose between $1,000 plane seat, or ride the bus?" Is "bus" the best answer?

Bill
 

Sownman

Donation Time
I would like to believe that a good portion of the California High Speed line monies have fed alot of Skilled Americans. Innovation is the key to America, positive forward thinking:D. Obviously they have employed some leading edge Engineers who are willing to take on a challenge, through to metal workers, electricians and alot of lower skilled labourers in masonary trades also but it still results in employment. Without doubt some under-handed greasing has taken place in some Seedy Strip clubs with Arnold's money but, but, but. What the Hey?:

There is no California HSR money. None has been spent except in studies. None exists because it will all come from new debt that California can't afford. Now. once it's borrowed it will indeed help some construction workers and families and engineers and conductors and families, but they and all the rest of us will have to pay it back. The end result assuming it all follows through to completion ? Train employees and construction employees end up better off with the exception of their portion of the debt. Californians will be able to travel to San Fran in over double the current time and at an expense (minus the tax load) probably less but not much less than the current $150. Oh and speaking of stimulus and help to families.... How many airline workers and families get hurt ??? How many non train and non airline families reach their financial breaking point because of the extra tax to build something that is not needed ? I know the California version of the answer. Nobody will have to pay but the rich. We'll raise taxes on them. Problem is they are leaving the state in droves, then what happens to the jobs those evil rich people might have created were they still rich or still in state ?

You see there is always a loser when government diverts money to "help" someone. If there was need for HSR and it stood a good chance of being profitable some evil rich capitalist would build it.

Steve
 

mikephillips

Donation Time
I think you're correct Bill that sometime the potential value of the investment has to come before the cost. At least an fair impartial analysis does. There are areas of the country where high speed rail is appropriate, the NE corridor for example where there's already real and potential traffic to support it. Cincinnati to Cleveland like they're talking about here, probably not. What we don't discuss, and by we I mean the government and special interest decision makers, is what's the best solution for each individual situation rather than overall. Neither bus or highway or train or airline is the best solution for every situation.
 

Nickodell

Donation Time
For those that have invested their time and money in education those challenges are what the American dream is really about.

I would suggest that if your education causes you to use nonexistent words like alot, geusstimate, geussing, inginuity, masonary, defecit and gripeing, it was a bad investment in time and money.

And this country sits on enough coal and natural gas to supply all our energy needs for the next century. As Pres. Obama said (when campaigning): "we sent a man to the moon in eight years, so don't tell me we can't figure out how to burn coal cleanly." [Today, of course, he has given it one of his famous reverses - flip-flops if you like.]

To show just what is possible, here is the first turbojet designed to run on fuel from coal:

img124.jpg
 
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